Archive for December, 2013

Century Old Fed Has Inflationary History

Friday, December 27th, 2013

With the Federal Reserve Board celebrating its 100th birthday, it’s a good time to look back on the past century to see how The Fed has fared.

We’ve been critical of The Fed’s quantitative easing program, but that accounts for only the past five years of Fed history.  How has it fared in the previous 95 years?  Overall, has its work improved life for Americans or has it been a negative force?Inflation

The Fed’s role is to ensure the safety and soundness of financial institutions, stability of financial markets, and equitable treatment of consumers in financial transactions.  But its activities are primarily focused on using America’s money supply to manage inflation, unemployment and interest rates.

If The Fed has performed its job well, America’s standard of living should be greatly improved today when compared with, say, 1938, when the country was still recovering from The Great Depression.

But MyBudget360 made some surprising discoveries when it compared 1938 prices with today’s prices after using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator to adjust for inflation.

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Paper Taper

Friday, December 20th, 2013

So the taper begins in January.  Big deal.

That was the market’s initial reaction anyway.  In fact, the market viewed this week’s announcement as a positive, setting yet another record.  Conversely, when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke first brought up the possibility of a taper in May, he sent the market reeling.  So talking about buying bonds has a greater impact than actually buying bonds.  Who knew?

Some believe the stock market rallied because The Fed made it clear that it will remain accommodative and that interest rates will remain near zero until the apocalypse.  That being the case, though, why did bond yields soar?  Go figure.Taper Impact

The taper announcement is not a big deal, though, because everyone knew it was coming – everyone except for the economists whose job it is to tell us when tapering is coming.  First they guessed wrong that it was coming in October, then they guessed wrong that it wasn’t coming in December.  Keep that in mind when you hear them tell you the economic benefits of more bond buying and more government spending.

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Getting Your Bond Portfolio in Shape for 2014

Friday, December 13th, 2013

It’s time to start thinking about New Year’s resolutions.  It’s an American tradition to resolve to lose weight, exercise regularly, be nicer, work harder and give up everything you enjoy.

But who are we kidding?  Such resolutions are made to be broken.  So this year, why not make a resolution and keep it?  This year, resolve to pay attention to bonds.

That’s right.  Boring old bonds.  They don’t have the flash that stocks do, they lack the immediate thrill that cash can provide because of its liquidity and they’re not as mysterious as alternatives.  Yet, if you give them a chance, bonds can play a major role in ensuring that your retirement will be secure.Cost of zero interest rate

Bonds are not without risk – especially in a rising interest rate environment – but they can help you protect your principal, produce income and add to your total return.

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When Common Sense Is Senseless

Friday, December 6th, 2013

What was I thinking?

Over the past couple of years, I’ve preached caution.  Corporate profits were down and unemployment was up.  The economy wasn’t growing, but the federal debt was.  Iran was developing nuclear capabilities while the entire continent of Europe was going bankrupt.  And investors were still shell shocked from the 2008 financial meltdown.

Not a good time to invest in stocks.  Not a good time to invest, period.  Common sense dictated restraint.Bungee Jumping

And the federal government’s answer was to spend as much as possible, while printing more money and buying more bonds than at any time in history.  After record stimulus spending and $4 trillion in bond buying, common sense would suggest high inflation and a sagging stock market; a good time to invest in gold and other hard assets.

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