The summer weather and the media’s focus on positive economic news may have you feeling cheerier than usual these days.
Two words: “Bah, humbug.” Or maybe, “Get real.”
Focus, for a minute, on the cloud, rather than the silver lining; recognize that evaporation has caused the glass to be less than half full (and more than half empty); see the bubble bursting, the interest rates rising and stock prices dropping. In other words, get realistic about the economy.
In the Keynesian world, the more government spends, the more the economy is “stimulated.” In the real world, more spending means more debt, higher taxes, more regulation and GDP growth well below the historic norm.
In the imaginary world, central bankers and government officials can keep the economy growing indefinitely and can boost asset prices to new records forever. In the real world, asset prices are at artificially induced levels; reality will take hold when the Federal Reserve Board raises interest rates, when China’s stock market tanks (as it has begun to), when Greece is booted out of the Eurozone, or when Iran uses the $150 billion it receives from the lifting of sanctions to further its war against the U.S. and Israel. (more…)