Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Blame It on Sequestration

Friday, May 3rd, 2013

President Obama and the Federal Aviation Administration blamed recent flight delays on sequestration.  Now the Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee is blaming sequestration for the poor performance of the U.S. economy.

Both claims are equally frivolous.

As The Wall Street Journal noted, “The FAA’s all-hands furloughs managed to convert a less than 4% FAA budget cut into a 10% air-traffic control cut that would delay 40% of flights. The 6,700 flights that the FAA threatened to force off schedule every day is twice as many delays as the single worst travel day of 2012.”

With members of Congress among those affected by the flight delays, Congress acted with uncharacteristic quickness and approved a bill to revoke FAA’s politically motivated furloughs.

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The U.S. Isn’t Greece – Yet

Tuesday, August 9th, 2011

If a “sovereign debt” crisis in Greece (population 10.7 million) can cause stock prices around the world to fall, what will happen to world markets if there is a similar crisis in the United States (population 307 million)?

The questions is relevant, given Standard & Poor’s decision to lower the U.S. credit rating from the perfect AAA it has held since 1917 to AA+. While some of the recent stock market drop – the worst since 2008 – can be attributed to other factors, such as sovereign debt in Europe and the continuing weak economy, the lower credit rating, has had a significant market impact.

The U.S. isn’t Greece – at least not yet – but it seems to be heading in that direction, in spite of the recent debt ceiling agreement, which cut $2.5 trillion from future spending.

Greece’s debt represents 155% of gross domestic product and is expected to reach 170% next year, according to The Wall Street Journal. In other words, the government is spending $1.55 for every dollar’s worth of goods the country produces.

Meanwhile, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is approaching 100% – even though it excludes an estimated $61.6 trillion in unfunded obligations for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. In addition, state and local governments have trillions of dollars in unfunded debt obligations.

In addition to running a $1.5 trillion budget deficit, the U.S. government added $5.3 trillion in financial obligations in 2010 for off-budget items, according to USA Today.

Maybe we’re not so far away from Greece after all.

Dodging the “Death Cross”

Monday, August 2nd, 2010

The S&P 500 recaptured 1100 on Friday.  This is a positive short-term development.

Prior to last week’s rally, the S&P 500 was in jeopardy of violating the long-term uptrend.  In early July, the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average crossed below its 200-day moving average.  This is known as the death cross.  The crossing of the two moving averages is a bearish signal and often predicts further market declines.

Thankfully, earnings season kicked off with a slew of strong earnings reports.  The market rebounded and is within striking distance of the 50-day moving average, crossing back above the 200-day moving average.

This is a positive technical signal and should provide a continuation of the uptrend into the 1130 – 1150 price area.

Fixed-Income Investors Weather Sovereign Debt Crisis

Monday, May 10th, 2010

Because of our focus on managing risk, fixed-income clients of Wenning Investments generally fared well during last week’s sovereign debt crisis, even though it created widespread panic in global markets around the world. 

Clients who hold a short bond position (TBT, PST) saw an unfavorable drop in prices, but we believe that the drop is temporary.  The position is held to provide a hedge against rising interest rates.  Interest rates fell last Thursday, but the overall trend is for interest rates to rise.

Other bond holders benefited from a decline in yields, which made the bonds they hold more attractive, since bond prices moved higher during the flight to safety.

During times of uncertainty, investors buy bonds to add protection to their portfolios and to avoid losses from falling stock prices.  When that happens, bond yields are driven lower, because the demand for bonds outweighs the supply.

Thursday, during the flight to safety, the 10-Year Treasury yield fell to 3.24%, down from 4% last month.  Today, though, the yield is inching back and is at 3.56%.

According to The Wall Street Journal, “The European Union agreed on an audacious $955 billion bailout plan in an effort to stanch a burgeoning sovereign debt crisis that began in Greece.”

This agreement has calmed fears around the globe and global stock markets are trending higher on the news.

Baby Boomer Retirement May Be A Bust

Sunday, March 21st, 2010

Unless they take action, many baby boomers are heading for a senior bust.

Many of the boomers we know have not saved sufficiently for retirement.  Spooked by the last two bear markets, they took their money out of the stock market, selling off when the market was near its low point.  Now they’re looking for the high returns necessary to produce the income they’ll need when they retire – yet they also want to avoid risk.

Unfortunately for risk-averse investors, there is an inverse relationship between risk and reward.  Investments that offer the potential for high returns usually also carry high risk.  Many investors who need high returns are keeping their money in money market funds or certificates of deposit, which carry almost no risk, but offer returns that fail to keep pace with inflation, let alone provide a real return.

While the investment outlook is admittedly tough for shell-shocked boomers, there are many reasons doing nothing should not be an option.

Don’t Count On Inheritance

Back in the 1990s, many were predicting that baby boomers would inherit trillions of dollars.  A study by Cornell University, for example, famously predicted that boomers would inherit $10.4 trillion.  And in those days, $1 trillion was still a rarely considered sum of money.

Yet it appears that the reality will be far more modest.  Parents of boomers are living longer, their healthcare costs are more expensive than predicted and they’ve also suffered through the same bear markets as their children.  Their inheritance, in many cases, is gone – and they may even be relying on their children for help.

A recent study by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) found that only about one in five boomer households has received an inheritance and only 15 percent of remaining boomers still expect to receive one.  Of those who received an inheritance, the median value has been about $64,000 – nice to have, but not enough to sustain another generation during retirement.

Boomers face other problems, too, which we will discuss in our next article.

Exchange-Traded Funds Have Grown Up

Monday, February 15th, 2010

Not long ago, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were hardly ever considered as an investment option for retail investors.  While many investors had heard of them, they were generally considered to be just another type of index fund.

Still, led by the popularity of the SPDR (aka, Spider), which is based on the S&P 500 stock index, ETFs grew to $610 billion in assets by May 2008.  By then there were 680 ETFs for every index imaginable.

With last year’s introduction of actively managed ETFs, they are likely to become even more popular.  There are already as many varieties of ETFs as there are of mutual funds and their numbers are growing rapidly.

ETFs, like mutual funds, are professionally managed and each fund represents an index or group of investments with specific characteristics in common.  For example, the first and most famous ETF was the SPDR (aka, Spider), which is based on the S&P 500 stock index.

Like mutual funds, ETFs range from very low risk to very high risk investments.  Unlike mutual funds, though, ETFs are priced continuously, not daily, and are traded on exchanges.  ETFs also provide an opportunity for investors to gain exposure to alternative investments, adding diversification to their portfolio.

Because ETFs are traded like stocks and bonds, they provide the same level of trading flexibility and can be used for hedging strategies.  They also are lower priced than most mutual funds and are more tax efficient, as there is little turnover in their portfolio securities and they don’t have to sell securities to meet investor redemptions.  These advantages may fade somewhat as actively managed ETFs proliferate.

Overall, ETFs offer advantages over mutual funds and cost less – so what’s not to like?

An Investment For Pessimists

Monday, February 15th, 2010

When it comes to investments with exotic sounding names, it’s hard to beat inverse-leveraged exchange-traded funds.

Then again, it’s also hard to beat them when the market is sinking.

Given their potential for performing well in down markets, it’s worth knowing what they are and how to use them.

Our next post will explain exchange-traded funds (ETFs).  Put what about that “inverse-leveraged” part?

An inverse fund moves in the opposite direction from the underlying securities.  For example, an inverse fund for the S&P 500 would move up when the S&P 500 moves down.  Unfortunately, of course, it would move down when the S&P 500 moves up.

If the inverse fund is also leveraged, it will move farther.  For example, if the fund is “double-beta” leveraged and inverse, it will move up two points for every point the underlying securities move down.  That’s great if the market is dropping in value, but you won’t be too happy if the market jumps 200 points and your ETF drops 400 points.

Inverse-leveraged ETFs can be risky, but they can also help reduce risk if they are used as part of a hedging strategy.  Consider that having a percentage of your investments in an inverse-leveraged ETF can balance losses in the rest of your portfolio if the market drops in value.  As such, they can reduce the overall risk in your portfolio.

Conversely, day traders are also using them to speculate on market movements or the movement of specific sectors.

Regardless, inverse-leveraged ETFs, as well as inverse ETFs and leveraged ETFs, are proliferating rapidly.  ProFunds introduced the first six leveraged and inverse international ETFs, and registered another 48 inverse and leveraged commodity and currency ETFs.  Rydex, which already has similar offerings, has added a half dozen of an expected 55 inverse and leveraged domestic ETFs that are based on specific investment styles and sectors.

Trustee vs. Co-Trustee

Friday, January 8th, 2010

Today I received a phone call from a dear and close friend about her eighty something year old father. She was vacationing with him and the topic of his trust came up.

He mentioned to her upon his death a very well known bank would serve as trustee. My friend was taken back by the idea of some stranger taking on the role of corporate trustee and making decisions for her and her family members.

I thought about her comments and put myself in her position. I personally would not want an impersonal bank serving as trustee for my family’s fortune. Immediately I think of a stranger as uncaring and mean-spirited especially if they are making decisions on my behalf and not granting my request. Who’s side are they on and why would I trust them?

In my career I have seen plenty of situations where a family member has been unhappy with the corporate trustee and co-trustees decision for not giving in to their demands. Sometimes the trustee is strict and probably should give in to a beneficiary’s request and other times I believe the trustee has performed his or her duty by saying no to a relentless beneficiary.

As I explained to my friend, be careful what you wish for. The responsibility that comes with being a trustee is a daunting task. Do not confuse duty and responsibility with privilege. Being a trustee is a duty and responsibility; it can also be hard work. The trustee has a fiduciary duty to the other beneficiaries, not privileged access to funds. A trustee of a trust is not an owner of the assets that are inside the trust. The trustee is a manager or agent of the trust and has the responsbility of following the grantors wishes.

In my friend’s situation, I think her father did the right thing. She has sibilings that are carefree with money and who would immediately put their interest before hers and severely punish her for not giving in to their demands. In this situation I applaud her father for taking the appropriate action and hiring a corporate trustee.

Remember, a corporate trustee should be able to think objectively and follow trust instrustions without emotion, unlike a child of the deceased who will be emotionally involved and who may or may not have biased opinions about another beneficiary’s request for money. So don’t take it personally when you are not named trustee or co-trustee of your parents trust. Be thankful you avoided the burden and responsibility of saying “NO” to sibilings or other family members.

Nine Common Investing Mistakes

Wednesday, January 6th, 2010

Individual investors often jump into the investing arena without having a financial plan in place. The risk? Committing common investing mistakes that end up lowering overall returns. Avoid the mistakes below and you’ll be equipped to make better investment decisions. 

Mistake #1: No Investment Plan. You’ve heard it before; “If you don’t know where you’re going, how will you ever get there?” Don’t feel bad if you don’t have an investment plan. You’re not alone. Many professionals do not have a formal investment plan; even investment professionals managing money for others!

First, your portfolio should encompass all your assets and liabilities, including real estate, automobiles, and even less marketable investments such as art, stamp, or coin collections. The full spectrum of investments must be considered because the returns from all these investments interact, and these relationships impact the investment portfolio. Next, you need to consider your investment objectives. Third, a clear understanding of your time horizon and expected future return is critical to devising an investment plan that meets your goals. Finally, your tolerance for risk will play a large role in the types of investments best suited to you.

Mistake #2: Unclear Financial Goals. Just as you need a solid strategy in order to accomplish your business goals, you need a plan to reach your financial goals. And that requires a clear understanding of both short- and long-term goals across all aspects of your life. For instance, do you want a retirement home in Cabo? When and how much will you need to make that a reality? Do you plan to send your kids to college? How many kids, when, and what colleges? Is it important that you donate to charities – even once you’re retired? All of these considerations – and more – need to be figured into your plan.

Mistake #3: Imbalance between Risks and Expected Returns. Given a choice between two assets with equal rates of return, would you select the asset with the lower level of risk or the higher level of risk? While most people gravitate toward the lower level of risk, some take on too much risk without realizing the potentially devastating impact on their portfolio. You need to understand your tolerance for risk and how that fits into your overall plan. And you need to set realistic expectations about the returns you’ll realize. If you put your money into a certificate of deposit, the risks are low – and so are the returns. When you invest in BBB bonds, the risk is higher, but so are the potential returns.

Mistake #4: Lack of Diversification. A properly diversified portfolio – in other words, one containing assets with differing rate-of-return characteristics – should provide a more stable rate of return. If you are investing in Large, Mid, and Small Cap stocks and think you have sufficient diversification, think again! Even though your holdings represent different market-capitalized companies within the U.S., that’s not sufficient to minimize risk. In today’s market environment, the U.S. market indices are moving in the same direction. A well-balanced portfolio represents a variety of asset classes, investment styles, and markets – both domestic and international.

Mistake #5: Buying High. Don’t follow the herd and chase performance of hot stocks or market sectors. Yesterday’s winners can quickly become overvalued and correct to normal valuations – and that’s usually painful to one’s bottom line. Instead of chasing after hot stocks here and there, smart investors continually evaluate their investments in light of the current economic climate and adjust their portfolio accordingly. Of course, this strategy requires diligence and keen insight into a variety of market factors. You may be best served hiring a money manager who knows how to navigate the waters.

Mistake #6: Selling Low. We all know the old adage “buy low/sell high” but investors often lose sight of this. Don’t get greedy and watch your gain disappear. Similarly, do not hold on to losing assets hoping to make back your initial investment when you could be selling and buying assets that are moving up. It’s far better to cut your losses and shift assets into more promising investments.

Mistake #7: Getting Emotionally Attached to Investments. Too often, investors become emotionally attached to certain stocks and fail to sell – even when it’s painfully obvious that they should. Whatever the reason for holding on to a losing stock – sentimental attachment, pride and ego, or even denial – you’re only hurting yourself by holding through thick and thin. (If you’re thinking “But you just said to ride out market highs and lows”, keep in mind this is about individual stocks, not the overall portfolio). Remember a 25% decline takes a 33% increase to break even*. Review your investments on a regular basis and initiate corrective measures if necessary.

*If you invest $100,000 and your account depreciates by 25% to $75,000, you then need a 33.5% return to go from $75,000 back up to $100,000.

Mistake #8: Short-term Trading. If you are not trained in short-term trading techniques, do not adopt a short-term trading methodology. Successful short-term trading isn’t just a matter of logging on to an online brokerage account once in a while and buying and selling. It requires a significant investment in time and research, and a keen insight into market fluctuations and historical trends. Only the truly skilled trader succeeds in the short term. For everyone else, transaction costs and losses typically outweigh any gains.

Mistake #9: Setting Unrealistic Expectations. If your investments are spread across varied asset classes (as they should be), do not make judgments about one aspect of your portfolio based on the performance of a completely different investment. For example, don’t expect your bond return to be in line with returns on international markets. (It’s like comparing apples to oranges). The whole idea of a diversified portfolio is to minimize the risk from any single investment. So, by definition, your various asset classes should perform differently. Instead, compare each asset class to its associated benchmark.

By incorporating a few simple rules into your investing plan, you’ll avoid the common mistakes of investing. Remember – if you periodically update your plan and stay focused on your long-term goals, you should be pleasantly surprised at your returns.