We’re well into January, but 2014 demanded a bit of reflection before commenting. Was it a good year or a bad year?
We still don’t know. We’re calling it the Year of “May,” although that title could have gone to 2013, 2012, 2011 or even 2010.
Using “may” in a sentence illustrates why 2014 was the Year of “May.” The economy may be improving, but it may not be improving by much. Interest rates may go up, but they may stay put for a while. The Federal Reserve Board may be done with quantitative easing, but it may be using other easy money measures to keep the stock market lovefest going. Europe may also begin quantitative easing.
In 2015, we may find out what Fed Chair Janet Yellen means by “macroprudential supervision.” During 2014, we may have joined the rest of the world in moving toward deflation, or, if the economy really is improving, we may soon be meeting – or even exceeding – the Fed’s inflation expectations.
See how useful that word “may” is? It sums up a year in three letters. It’s so noncommittal, so indefinite, so milquetoast … so 2014. We may be at war with the Islamic State, Russia may be taking over eastern Europe and the Middle East may be in worse shape than it was before the Arab Spring. Then, again, it may not be. (more…)