Archive for July, 2016

At a Loss over Profits

Monday, July 25th, 2016

Apparently, there are two Americas.

In one, corporate profits are soaring, the economy is booming and jobs are available for the asking.

In the other, corporate profits are dismal, America is in or close to a recession and more than 100 million Americans have left the labor force.

In one America, more people approve than disapprove of the job President Obama is doing (49.2% approve, 46.8% disapprove, according to Real Clear Politics).  In the other America, more than two thirds of the country believe the country is on the wrong track.  Real Clear Politics found that 69.3% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, while only 22.5% believe it is on the right track. Profits

While media are increasingly reporting that the economy is at or near full employment, that America is at odds with reality.  As we’ve written, participation in the labor force has dropped to 62.6%, which is near a four-decade low.

The America where the economy is booming is even more delusional.  Some may say that it’s all relative.  They may concede that U.S. growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is sluggish at best, but typically add that it’s better than GDP growth in the rest of the world. (more…)

Grading on a Curve

Monday, July 18th, 2016

 “We do not target the level of stock prices.                     That is not an appropriate thing for us to do.”

                                    Fed Chair Janet Yellen

 It’s the equivalent of social passing or grading on a curve. While the stock market is breaking new records, its recent performance is not a reflection of reality.

As Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” “I don’t think we have enough evidence to justify these levels in the equity market at this moment.” Buybacks

He said the recent rally has been driven by institutional investors covering shorts (i.e., hedging bets that stock prices would fall), and not by bullish individual investors. In fact, he noted that outflows in mutual funds show that individual investors are becoming squeamish about stock prices.

Institutional investors were short going into Brexit, but are recalibrating their portfolios, Fink said, given that the Brexit aftershock has not been as long-lasting as expected. While some may have been concerned about the economic impact of the United Kingdom voting to leave the European Union, ultimately its impact on markets was muted by the knowledge that Brexit would most likely keep the Fed from increasing interest rates anytime this year.  (more…)

Can We All Be Greeters at Wal-Mart?

Monday, July 11th, 2016

Job reports typically report on jobs as if they are a commodity; a job is a job, whether you’re a CEOs or a greeter at Wal-Mart.

So it’s good news that 287,000 new jobs were added to the economy in June—assuming you believe government statistics—but it’s bad news if the jobs are so mediocre, illegal immigrants wouldn’t work them. Older workers

First, let’s consider the numbers. In May, the experts predicted that 160,000 new jobs would be created, but the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that only 38,000 were created. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.7%, though, because 458,000 workers dropped out of the labor force and were no longer counted in the statistics.

For June, experts predicted that 175,000 new jobs would be created, which is 112,000 fewer than the BLS reported. At the same time, the BLS revised the May figure downward to just 11,000 new jobs. The question no one seems to be asking is why there was so much volatility between May and June. How does the economy add virtually no jobs one month and then produce 26 times as many jobs the following month? Even the stock market isn’t that volatile.

The report prompted headlines such as, “U.S. employment rebounds strongly in June, calming fears of economic slowdown” (The Washington Post), “Job growth surges in June as employers add whopping 287,000 jobs” (USA Today) and “Jobs Roar Back With Gain of 287,000 in June, Easing Worry” (The New York Times).

And, by the way, the unemployment rate increased from 4.7% to 4.9% in June, primarily because some Americans rejoined the work force.  (more…)

Happy Dependence Day

Monday, July 4th, 2016

On the fourth of July, we celebrate our freedom from tyranny. Yet King George would be envious of the control the U.S. government, and state and local governments hold over American citizens today.

Our freedom is eroding and, unless major changes are made, someday it will be gone.  If America is the “land of the free,” why are college campuses and media increasingly accepting only “progressive” viewpoints?  Diversity is a great thing, but it should go beyond race and gender to include differing points of view.SR-fed-spending-numbers-2012-p8-1-chart-8_HIGHRES

President Obama has said that he is not a king, but he has acted like one, signing a seemingly endless stream of executive orders. New laws are no longer passed by Congress, but are created by executive order (environmental regulations, dropping restrictions on Cuba) or by one-party vote (the Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act).

And, increasingly, Americans are trading their independence for government dependence.

Consider some of the ways in which we are losing our freedom. (more…)