Don’t Worry, Be Happy

“In your life expect some trouble 
But when you worry
You make it double
Don’t worry, be happy…”

                                              Bobby McFerrin

Higher and higher.  The stock market has gone in only one direction since our last post and that’s been up.

As of yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen for 10 straight days for its best performance since 1996.  The S&P 500, likewise, surged past 1,560 having gained 3.05% in the past month.

Don’t worry, be happy

And, so what if the world is going broke, if that genius Ben Bernanke continues printing money, the Dow could rise from its current 14,500 range all the way up to 18,000 by the end of the year, according to Wharton School Professor Jeremy Siegel.

Don’t worry, be happy

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What Recovery?

Maybe we should be used to high unemployment … but now the bad news on jobs is coupled with queasiness about corporate earnings.

The latest earnings season began with the S&P 500 dropping 1% yesterday.  It has dropped 2.5% over the past four trading days.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.8%

Based on estimates compiled by Bloomberg analysts, profits for S&P 500 companies fell 1.8 percent in the second quarter, marking the first decline since 2009.  More troubling, though, is that the drop is likely part of a trend.  What can we expect in the third and fourth quarters? read more

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200-Day Moving Average Says the Bear Is Back

Investment managers regard the 200-day moving average price of an index such as the S&P 500 or of an individual stock as the dividing line.  An index or stock trading above the 200-day average is being bought and is in an upward trend.  An index or stock trading below the 200-day average is being sold and is in a downward trend.

The moving average smoothes out short-term price fluctuations and provides a high-level look that makes sense of the market.  For money managers attuned to managing risk, a close below the 200-day moving average marks a change in trend, from a bull market to a bear market. read more

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Signs Of A Market Breakout

The S&P 500

While nothing is ever certain until it happens, the stock market appears to be ready for a major breakout from its recent short-term trading range.

If the S&P 500 closes above the upper resistance level of 1131.00, we should see additional money flow into the stock market, which will boost stock prices further.

The S&P appears positioned to break out, having rallied 6.9% over the last nine trading sessions.  While the month is not over, the market weakness historically seen in September has not played out this year.  And with this being an options expiration week, there is an added positive bias to the market. read more

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