Part two of a two-part series.
If all goes well, 2021 will be better than 2020. But there’s much that can go wrong.
The manufacturing and distribution of vaccines is a huge undertaking. While millions of vaccines have already been administered, hundreds of millions will need to be administered before the pandemic ends in the U.S. And then there’s the rest of the world.
Pfizer hoped to produce 100 million doses of its vaccine by the end of 2020, but had to reduce its production projections by 50%, because of delays in scaling up by its supply chain for raw materials. The company still hopes to produce more than 1 billion doses by the end of 2021.
Even if manufacturing and production proceed flawlessly, some have already said they will resist taking the vaccine.
At least 75% of Americans need to be vaccinated to stop the spread of COVID-19, according to The Hill, but in a recent survey, “just half of Americans indicated that they would likely get a COVID-19 vaccine. These individuals are concerned about the fast pace of COVID-19 vaccine development, poor communication about the science and perceived politicization of vaccine approval.”
We also have to worry about potential mutant strains. Mutant strains in Great Britain and South Africa appear to make the virus easier to transmit, but experts say it would take years for mutations to make the new vaccines ineffective.
There is also the possibility of adverse effects from the vaccines. As the number of people vaccinated grows, the probability that some will die or become seriously ill increases. And even if the vaccine is not the cause, the potential that it could be would result in distrust of the vaccine or even a halt to its use.
Even if all goes well and springtime brings an end to the pandemic, its after effects will be with us for many years. You may be able to enjoy dining out again, but your favorite restaurants may have been forced into bankruptcy. Gyms, movie theaters, concert halls, sports stadiums, bars, beauty salons and other businesses that rely on personal contact have suffered greatly.
The pandemic permanently closed nearly 100,000 businesses as of the end of August, according to an Economic Impact Report published by Yelp. About 60% of businesses that temporarily closed when the pandemic began won’t be reopening.
While economic lockdowns have had an especially harmful effect on small businesses, they have affected all of us. Lockdowns don’t stop the spread of COVID-19, according to Dr. Scott Atlas, but they “create extremely harmful health and social problems beyond a dramatic drop in learning, including a tripling of reported depression, skyrocketing suicidal ideation, unreported child abuse, skipped visits for cancer and other medical care.”
These are all issues that will have to be dealt with post-pandemic.
New President
The big change in 2021, of course, will be a new president, President-elect Joseph R. Biden.
With the Democratic Party gaining two Senate seats, the Senate is evenly divided, 50-50, between Democrats and Republicans, but Vice President Kamela Harris can cast the deciding vote in case of a tie. With complete control of the U.S. House of Representatives, the U.S. Senate and the White House, the Democratic Party is in power and progressives will be pushing for change.
If President Biden is indeed a “moderate,” a Senate with a Republican majority would have given him an opportunity to be truly bipartisan and to not give in to the demands of the increasingly dominant progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
Will President Biden govern as a progressive? At this point, we can only predict his actions based on his previous political experience, his party’s platform and the team he’s putting together to run his cabinet.
Many Biden appointees have previously served under the Obama Administration, with Joe Biden serving as vice president. But they are a very diverse group, with varied experience. That his picks are getting mixed reviews from progressives may be a sign of moderation.
President-elect Biden has said he will support an expansion of the Affordable Care Act, rather than Medicare for All, which is supported by many in his party. With a projected cost of $32.6 trillion over the first decade, Medicare for All is so expensive, even doubling federal taxes would not cover its cost.
The party platform has commendable goals, but would also be unaffordable.
“Democrats will take immediate action to preserve and expand health insurance coverage,” according to the party platform. “We will provide direct, increased support to states to enroll eligible adults in Medicaid, have the federal government cover a higher percentage of the bill, and add incentives for states which have not yet expanded Medicaid to do so.
“ … Democrats believe the federal government should pick up 100 percent of the tab for COBRA insurance, which keeps people on their employer-sponsored plans, without restrictions. We will re-open the Affordable Care Act marketplaces, even outside of the normal open enrollment season, and expand subsidies to make it easier for people to buy health coverage. Democrats will also make available on the marketplace a public option administered through the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) which includes a platinum-level choice, with low fees and no deductibles. Low-income Americans will be automatically enrolled in the public option at zero cost to them, though they may choose to opt out at any time.”
Expanding Medicaid, paying for COBRA coverage, making a “public option” available that’s “platinum-level” with low fees and no deductibles would be nearly as expensive as adopting Medicare for All. And it would move the U.S. a step closer to socialized healthcare. It’s no surprise that U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders played a lead role along with President-elect Biden in drafting the party platform.
Medicare and Medicaid already account for $1.3 trillion of the federal budget and, along with Social Security, they are the greatest contributors to the federal debt, as we recently pointed out.
Other actions we can expect from the Biden Administration including overturning the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which would increase taxes on most Americans and return corporate taxes to being the highest in the world.
Given that many businesses are barely surviving and millions of Americans are struggling, increasing taxes could have a devastating impact on the economy.
He has said he will reinstate the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, halt deportations, rejoin the World Health Organization and the Paris Accord and do much, much more. Many of President Trump’s actions are likely to be overturned, just as many of President Obama’s actions were overturned by President Trump.
Will be better off a year from now? Or will we be saying, “Thank God, 2021 is finally over!”
We can only hope that 2021 will be a better year than 2020. Have a Happy New Year.